Storms of Our Future

Last night, I attended a talk in Sydney by Dr James Hansen, highly awarded scientist and author (see his new book, Storms of My Grandchildren). James has a long career of researching and defining the changes in our climate and is a world authority on this topic.

It was a full house, yet still an informal occasion, where questions were invited. James spoke about the many challenges we face, and he also spoke about some solutions, such as a new Fee and Dividend way of promoting and rewarding energy efficiency. James is among many who are seriously concerned about the global decline in public interest in climate science, while at the same time, the data is showing more conclusively that the planet is warming. His key message was that we need to reduce the CO2 levels to 350 ppm, if we want to pass on a workable planet to the next generations. To do that, James sees that we must generate our power without burning fossil fuels, primarily coal.

For the planet, he spoke about nuclear power generation, but for Australia, he could see a future using renewable options such as large scale solar thermal, because of the ideal conditions for that technology to function.

All that is well known, but one more point came out of the evening, and that was a brief discussion about the need for a "Churchill like" leader, who would engage the world and set a course for the future. And it made me think of a Winston Churchill quote that I came across last week which said “Sometimes doing your best is not good enough. Sometimes, you must do what is required.”

Dr James Hansen is a brilliant scientist, not by nature a public speaker, but he is "doing what is required". And maybe that's a question for us all, "what is it that we can do, that is required for our planet and our common future".

Image : Dr. James Hansen, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York. Credit: NASA

Protoype the Future

"Lessons we've learned" by Nike CEO Mark Parker see WME article

• Transparency is an asset, not a risk;
• Collaboration enables systemic change;
• Every challenge and risk is an opportunity;
• Design allows you to prototype the future, rather than retrofit the past; and
• To make real change, you have to be a catalyst.

Direction --> Money

Truman Semans published an article on Dec 18th, called "In Copenhagen, Follow the Money". In it, he says:

"Few of the Copenhagen negotiators understand economics, investment, and business well, or the contributions business can make to solve the problem, or the policy frameworks that would best encourage business to play this role."

Our focus over the past few months has been to look at what can be achieved by governments coming together to solve the climate crisis. And in some ways, this was a positive step, but mostly, it was a planetary talk fest.

Truman rightly points out that developed countries are unlikely to hand over the sums of money being sought by developing nations, and companies with existing or new IP are not going to give away that technology. So the outcomes being sought were not feasible in the current global political space.

To achieve the vision, the goals of a new energy economy, and to fast track this, business people must step in and drive the agenda. This is already happening in China, India and the US as BLWB's (business leaders without borders) see opportunities for major industries developing in water, waste and energy management. Many corporate partnerships across nations are already in place and more are on the drawing board.

Old money is blocking some of these initiatives, and it's time for them to change direction, or get out of the way. And for governments to support local initiatives that will best meet the needs of this new economy.

In Truman's words: "It is critical that the business community educate governments on the role that they can play and sell them on the enabling policies and financial mechanisms that are needed. "

Copenhagen over, now let's get on with what needs to be done.

Directionally challenged

As planetary people, we are hurtling through space and time, and our individual lives are wrapped around the circumstances that we find ourselves. And annually, by our measure of time, I find it useful to take some moments to review and look ahead.

With all the challenges that drive us daily, it is sometimes difficult to fully comprehend facts and figures that point to an uncertain future for many species, including us. How then, do we look forward positively, and enliven others around us for the changes that are unfolding?

Looking back, those who inspired us in the past, did so by their positive words. Words such as, “I have a dream….” and, “we will fight them on the beaches…”, and NOT, “I have a nightmare...” or “they are so powerful against us...”. Warnings are useful, but like this sign, give us no information about where we should go. This next year, 2010, is a year to inspire more people to become involved in the transition, and to draw more pictures of our common future, while still actively challenging short-term and factional thinking.

My picture of our future is of a stable number of people on this planet living in diverse, sustainable communities, each having access to water and food, and to life enhancing energy from renewable sources. My vision is of a sustainable global society powered by renewable energy.

What is your dream, your planetary picture, your vision of the future, one you use to engage those around you?

(and I took the picture above in Ireland/West Coast)

A Six-Pack of Coal

This week, Science Alert includes a commentary by Kjell Aleklett called Economy and Climate on the path down from the Peak of Oil and Gas. In that article, Kjell, who is Professor in Physics, Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, at Uppsala University, Sweden, writes.....

"Many are convinced that the future use of coal will determine the outcome for the world’s climate. If we study the world’s coal reserves we find that 80 per cent exists in only six nations; the USA, Russia, China, India, Australia and South Africa. The greatest proportion of the coal that is consumed globally is in these six nations. It is incorrect to assert that carbon dioxide emissions from coal are an international problem.
They are fundamentally a national problem. The international problem is that the rest of the world is affected by the emissions from these six nations."

Thought-provoking words for us Aussies surfing and sitting on our beaches, watching ships queue up to export tons of the stuff!

pic ex Flickr Happychopper's Photostream with comment "Newcastle - check the massive ships in the distance carrying coal... there were hundreds of them out there! "

100 percent renewable by 2030

Mark Jacobsen of Stanford and Mark Delucchi of University of California have produced a paper which confirms what some of us have suspected, that it is possible to shift the world's energy production to 100 percent renewable by 2030. Their article is the cover story of the November Scientific American and their formula is a combination of wind, marine and solar energy. They point out that using renewables to generate power automatically provides significant efficiency because much less energy is wasted as heat such as in the combustion processes of traditional power generation.

The article addresses the "hour by hour" power demand and the need to significantly upgrade the transmission infrastructure. According to them, 100 percent renewable by 2030 is possible, it's feasible, but whether it's achievable may depend on how we support our renewable businesses and entrepreneurs, and what we say to our politicians and to our law makers.

There are competing elements in this new era, but change will happen. The question is, will it be done in time, and achieve our 100 percent renewable world by 2030?

TCKTCKTCK to the future

Maintaining the Status Quo - when we have achieved some semblance of "the good life", our priority is then to maintain that lifestyle, not to see it eroded, to keep things the way they currently are. But that mindset comes with a big price tag for the planet.

This week, I observed a considerable degree of that urge to maintain the status quo, with farmers in the UK rejecting wind farms which might change their view, Australians in a debate about how our lifestyles could change unless we tighten our border security. Others worldwide are concerned about increases in energy cost, and how that could impact them in the short term, while many more see their lifestyles being eroded from lack of water and changing climate. Others just want to avoid any debate and hope that life will continue as "normal" and want their personal status quo maintained.

In some ways, the Copenhagen debate is also one of Status Quo - how to set a course for the future at the same time as providing the economic and political stability to take us there.

So there is no easy answer here, but an absolute need to develop a new paradigm, new values, and a new vision. We have talked a lot about the pain of this transition and that surely will happen, but it's also time to talk about a new future which will provide a new status quo. How do we live in this new world? What resources do we need and what can we provide for our children to develop this space?

Copenhagen is one more step in that direction, and an important one. So it's now time for us all to become more active in our communities and to let go of our own personal "status quo" - to become pioneers of this new future, and join those, like Desmond Tutu, in becoming Climate (and planet) Allies.