Monday 28 January 2008

Ten oil filled bottles sitting on the wall..

When most people make a prediction about the future of oil, then it's usually, at best, an educated guess. When the chief executive of Shell, the world's second largest oil company makes a statement, then we should all listen VERY carefully. Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, is reported to have said in an e-mail to the company’s staff this week that demand for oil and gas would outstrip conventional supplies within seven years. 

If we accept that this man has the best available information to make this statement, then we have several options. At one extreme, we can do very little, and after seven more "fat" years, there will be seven very lean years. Or we make a plan to be off our oil addiction within the next seven years. And that means a total rethink of transport, not just a substitution with a fuel made from trees and plants. That would mean a choice between driving and eating - only some get to drive and only some get to eat!

How and why do we move ourselves and goods around? How can we achieve a similar, or even better result, without traditional transport? Prince Charles appeared at a conference recently as a hologram - removing the need for transport not just for him but for his entourage. Being there in person is great, but we can achieve quite a lot with technology. Quotes are now done by viewing the site from a phone video, video conferencing is used for meetings, on-line training provides services to suit varying time frames, and job interviews can be held by phone and by Skype. And let's get creative with travel - In Japan, there is a mock-up of a working Dutch village, so people can experience the culture, without actually going to Europe. This is just the start. We still want to go out, have fun and new experiences. Being packed like sardines into an aircraft and standing in security queues at airports is an experience, but very few people consider this as having fun.

And if we do travel, then consider what actually needs to be taken with you. If you are relocating, then prune your possessions to what can not be replaced in the new location (give them away or sell them before you go). Why does the fridge need to go? It's often the best one for that particular home. Think ahead to a time when the cost of transporting anything could be seven times what it is today. How much would you transport if the removal cost was seven times higher?

Imagine a world where transport is much much much more expensive and rethink your pattern of moving around. Are you in easy reach of shops and services? Can you easily reach those who definitely need a hug at regular intervals? It's all about to change and the seven year clock is ticking away....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Well written article.